Dangerous Speech as an Atrocity Early Warning Indicator: Measuring Changing Conflict Dynamics

Dangerous speech, any expression that can increase the likelihood that someone will commit or condone violence against members of another group, can be a powerful early warning signal of impending mass violence. However, one cannot make a list of words that are dangerous, since the effect of the message depends not only on its content, but also on how it is communicated: by whom, to whom, and under what circumstances. What may be benign in one context may be extremely inflammatory in another. Thus, effective monitoring requires deep knowledge of the local setting and structural factors. The spread of dangerous speech online increases its potential impact, but also allows atrocity prevention practitioners access to the speech and provides a window into rapidly changing situations “on the ground.” This paper will review the literature on the connection between speech and violence and explain how dangerous speech on social media – and the responses to it – can serve as a signal of changing conflict dynamics. It will then make the case that civil society, as well as embassy staff, when trained to identify dangerous speech, can serve as a much-needed bridge, bringing local knowledge to government officials and NGOs who can marshal resources for effective interventions.